This is a business with:
Revenue up 60.7% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, with full-year guidance raised from $260-275 million to $285-295 million
Adjusted EBITDA guidance lifted to $33-35 million, against $14.1 million for the whole of last year
Three bolt-on acquisitions closed in a single quarter at mid-single-digit EBITDA multiples, while the company itself is valued at roughly 10x guided EBITDA
Under 10% share of its largest service market and around 5% of another, in an industry growing mid to high single digits before any share gains
The only end-to-end operator in its niche, by its own count against nine competitors
A structural volume driver that has gone from 4.4% adoption in 2022 to 58.7% today, with management modelling the low 60s by 2028
Two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow before aircraft purchases after years of burn, and a $17.5 million earn-out expected before year-end
Roughly $200 million of capital management says it can deploy through 2029, into a market of local operators who cannot compete nationally
A 5.8% activist stake disclosed this week, with a call for a review of strategic alternatives
The setup is almost boringly predictable: buy small regional operators at mid-single-digit multiples, plug them into a national platform, watch fixed costs get spread over a bigger base.
Except there is a catch, and it is a real one. The adjusted EBITDA figure everyone quotes adds back stock-based compensation that runs at roughly half of adjusted EBITDA. Strip that out and the multiple doubles.
In my view that single line is the whole debate on this stock.
As of this week, an activist thinks so too.
Here’s everything you need to know...